Warning

Everything on this blog is the truth, which is pretty fucking scary. Well, some of it is wild conjecture, but that is pretty scary too.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Why You Should Live in a Van Down By the River: You Can Move It.

I read a lot of economics blogs and columns, in part because I am a masochist but I also really like to see what economists are saying or not saying about housing.  At Marginal Revolution today there is a discussion about theories behind the involvement of Fannie and Freddie in the mortgage market.  The post states that the old consensus was that the GSE's were in place to make housing more affordable.  EPIC FAIL ALERT.  The notion that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Reserve have ever made housing more affordable is ludicrous and comical.  If you define affordable as low interest rates then you can definitely argue that they succeeded but you are ignoring the most important factor in whether housing is affordable:  your income.

We used to consider housing affordable if you spent roughly 25 percent of your gross monthly income on housing.  During the peak of the housing boom, Fannie Mae was routinely backing loans at 65 percent of  people's gross monthly incomes.  If you expand your definition of affordable to mean, "at the cusp of bankrupting you" then well done, Fannie.  You made housing more dangerously affordable than ever.

What we have in many parts of this country is a mismatch in the supply of housing with what consumers can actually afford, you know, given their crappy job prospects.  The government inflated housing bubble changed what we view as affordable and made a 3 bedroom house in the suburbs with granite countertops seem like a public good.  It's not.  We have a vast amount of homes that are affordable to a small amount of people.  This cannot be fixed by government intervention, it will require rising incomes and economic growth which will increase demand for what is currently, unaffordable housing.

HUD projections show that in my region, housing demand will be for homes in the $125,000 to $200,000 price range.  This is affordable given our median income levels and these are the homes that are actually selling right now.  What we have is a plethora of homes priced from $250,000 to $350,000 that even if you have 20 percent to put down (a modern miracle), once you factor in taxes and insurance you would need income in excess of $72,000 a year to afford.  This is assuming that you don't have any other debt.  If you have a car payment, student loan, and an average credit card balance this ups your income requirement to $100,000 a year to afford the payment.  Better get on the The Ladders website.

On the other end of affordability we have many families that are working class, what is quickly becoming a class of the working poor.  They may have combined incomes of $45,000 per year and they have consumer debt and spend virtually all of their incomes monthly.  For this family, an affordable house carries a mortgage payment of  $1125 including taxes and insurance.  For this family, a home that costs $150,000 is affordable.  Unfortunately, many of these families are living in $250,000 houses because they qualified for twice what they could actually afford with the help of Fannie, Freddie, and the Federal Reserve.

We have a number of housing problems which are exacerbated by our poor economy.  People underwater on their mortgages are trapped unless they say screw it and walk away and why wouldn't they; what incentive do they have to stay?  Do you really think people struggling to stay afloat are going to put the virtue of their word over a rational economic decision?  Didn't think so.

A bigger problem exists for unemployed homeowners.  Because economies tend to have local and regional agglomeration characteristics in particular industries, you end up with a lot of unemployed people in one area with similar skill sets.  If these unemployed people were mobile, as in able to sell their house and not take a complete financial schlacking, they could move to where their skills might be employable.  Unfortunately, we have a labor force that is very immobile right now which makes unemployment even worse.  Being a renter right now has tremendous advantages, particularly if you can move to take advantage of opportunity.

Perhaps, the Banks should become landlords and turn short sales and foreclosures into rentals.  This would slow down the decline in housing values because the properties wouldn't go to market and then drag down appraisals for the next two years for other homes in the area.  Bankers would make great Slumlords, they wouldn't even require training.

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