Too Small to Succeed: The Plight of Jello Salad and Small Banks

I spent a good chunk of my weekend contemplating the future extinction of Jello salad. It started at a friend’s birthday party for her daughter when her grandmother made a pineapple Jello salad and the kids couldn’t get enough of it. I don’t make Jello salad, in fact, I don’t even make Jello, unless it is for shooters but I’m even getting too old for that. So this party had me thinking that as grandparents die off so will Jello salad, because it is only loved by the very old and the very young and very few in my generation make the stuff. I find this kind of sad, although the truth is that I don’t even like Jello salad, probably because my mom shoved it in my yapper at every kind of celebration when I was a child. If I fell off my bike I was told, “Here have some Jello salad, you will feel better. It will fix you right up!” You are probably wondering what this has to do with the mortgage and banking industry. Well at first glance, absolutely nothing but, it made me realize that Jello salad is like small banks, neither one will be probably exist in twenty years.

A glance at the FDIC bank failure list shows a number of regional and small community banks shutting their doors. I guess they are too small to succeed, while their larger national counterparts are benefitting from the notion that they are too big to fail. Our government is helping to decide who the winners and losers are and we are footing the bill.

Some of these failures are due to market forces, particularly small community banks in rural places where populations are declining and so are economic prospects. Bad investments by banks can also account for a portion of the closures, particularly those regional banks that put a considerable amount of their resources into financing home builders and commercial developers in places like Nevada, California, and Florida.

What seems odd to me is that smaller banks that didn’t take on the kind of risk that plagued the banking industry during the housing boom are failing at a much higher rate. By all accounts, they were still lending more responsibly than the rest of the industry and since many of them subjected loans to traditional underwriting by committee, they should have been more insulated than the big banks using Fannie Mae products to get nearly anyone a loan. Perhaps, a larger portion of the failures are those banks that in response to the increasing competitiveness of the banking industry and its consolidation, were encouraged to take on more risk than realistic for their asset size and local economic conditions. I still question however, that all these explanations can account for the higher failure rate. I'm sure the rest is explained by the collusion of the large banks to receive bailouts and pass on risk and exposure to the small banks.

This is on my mind because of the proposed financial regulations that will do precious little to insulate us from having another financial meltdown in the future. With the loss of small banks, we are losing tremendous information and relationships that can help foster economic growth and stability in a region. Bankers who know their customers can assess risk better than automated underwriting; tools such as credit reports, which are not always reflective of risk, cannot replace the knowledge found in a more personal banking system. The consolidation of the banking and mortgage industry which has been going on for twenty years is speeding up thanks to the housing crisis, and I’m sure the largest of the banks couldn’t be happier about it. Couple this with the melding of banking and the insurance industry and we are at more risk than ever.

So when small banks go, so does competition in the industry, leading to a cartel of banks…oh yeah, we have that already, it is called the Federal Reserve. The impact on consumers will be profound in terms of fees for everything from overdrafts, wire transfers, stop payments, and on and on. Cartels do not price competitively, they don’t have to. Will customers appreciate the convenience of large banks; of course they will. What I fear customers won’t recognize is that a less competitive banking industry can hamper our future economic growth and lead to greater risk in our financial markets.

If you haven’t read Barbarians at the Gate or Liar’s Poker I recommend you go out and get them right now. What I take from these two books is that particularly in financial markets, the consolidation of power and resources creates greater incentive for rent-seeking and collusion, leaving taxpayers more at risk to anti-competitive and harmful behavior. From junk bonds to mortgage backed securities, a very small group of players are determining behavior in financial markets and where wealth flows. Think of it this way, if you only had to answer to people just like you with the same incentives and goals you would probably behave however you wanted without fear of repercussions, there would be no reinforcement mechanism to check your asshole behavior. Ever go out drinking with a bunch of drunks? Yeah, its like that. Banks, Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the government agencies that are there to check them represent this giant club of assholes who have no incentive to check one another’s power.

I don’t have the answer but I know that the proposed regulations won’t work. My gut feeling is that half ass regulations will only make it worse. I want a competitive banking industry, which is impossible with the Federal Reserve and the government involved in the capacity they are working towards. This I know for sure: Clever people will always find a way around regulations and the more time goes on, the more damaging their escapes prove to be for taxpayers.

For the last twenty years, the comparative advantage of the United States has been in making debt, not creating wealth. Clever people will figure out how to make debt look like something it isn’t and it will continue to finance our economic growth much like junk bonds and mortgage backed securities have in the past. This is what we are good at as a country and the expense of it gets more burdensome every year.

Like I said, I don’t have all the solutions. Perhaps, we can save Jello salad with a few cookbooks and some help from our Grandmas, but I think small banks are on the verge of extinction. With the power of the banks and their links to Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and the U.S. Government, there is no hope for small banks and all the Jello salad in the world won’t make it better.